Conjoint preference share simulator allows you to simulate shares of preference for different market offerings. Specifically, you need to describe offerings that are available on the market in the language of the attributes and levels that you chose to include in the study, and the system will estimate the percentages of preferences for these offerings. Please keep in mind that:

  • If you would like to test out a new product, add it to the list of existing concepts.
  • If two or more offerings share exactly the same levels, input each offering separately. For example, if there are two brands each offering identical products, put in both brands in two separate lines.
  • The market shares are only approximate and may be affected by constrained availability of some products (e.g., not available in all geographies), shelf space (in case of FMCG).

For example, you can specify these three offerings to see approximate shares of preference:

Brand Monthly fee Mobile data inclusion International calls inclusion SMS inclusion Share of preference
Telstra $49.00 500MB 0 min 300 messages 30%
Vodafone $39.00 10GB 90 min Unlimited text 20%
Optus $45.00 Unlimited 300 min Unlimited text 25%
None of the above 25%
Total 100%

Models for calculating market shares

There are two models for calculating market shares:

  • Share of preference model, which is appropriate for low-risk or frequently purchased products: FMCG, software, etc. This model is applicable in the vast majority of applications.
  • First choice model, which is suitable for high-risk or seldom purchased products: education, life insurance, pension plans, etc.

In most cases, both simulation models produce substantially the same results. However, at times, simulations results will differ greatly from actual market shares, hence adjustments may be needed.

Automated preference share simulations for what-if scenarios

Brand Specific Conjoint experiments provide outputs allowing estimation of; market overview, overall profile, segmentation and interactive simulations. Preference shares, revenue projections and price elasticity can be estimated and charted using simulators.

In the below scenario a baseline for four car brands is being shown for preference shares and revenue projections.

Price elasticity of Ladina Klubnia

Simulation of price elasticity preference shares for Ladina Klubnia

Simulation of price elasticity revenue projections for Ladina Klubnia

Attributes and levels that have been set in the experiment design appear in the simulations screen allowing for charting all possible scenarios. Each scenario can be manually renamed and allows for advanced options such as; segmentation, manual availability adjustment of observed volume share, and adjustment of relative availability (adjustment factor).

Make and model Drive-away price Transmission Engine type

Preference shares and revenue projections (assuming 1,00 units offered) can be simulated to assist in adding or modifying product features.

Ladina Klubnia: Automatic vs. Manual

Ladina Klubnia preference shares simulation of Automatic versus Manual

Ladina Klubnia revenue projections simulation of Automatic versus Manual

Price elasticity of demand in two clicks

Price elasticity of demand can be calculated for multiple scenarios by clicking on two points of a preference share simulation.

In this scenario, when clicking on both the $23,000 and $25,000 price points for Ladina Klubnika a message will be displayed stating that the price elasticity of demand is elastic.

Price elasticity of Ladina Klubnia

Simulation of elastic demand preference shares for Ladina Klubnia

Ladina Klubnika

Price elasticity of demand between $23,000 and $25,000 is -4.6.

Demand is elastic (i.e., an increase in price by 1% leads to more than 1% drop in volume).

Price elasticity of Ladina Klubnia

Simulation of price elasticity preference shares for Ladina Klubnia

Simulation of price elasticity revenue projections for Ladina Klubnia

Apply custom segmentation to simulations by clicking the “show advanced settings” button and select the required segment(s).

New product launch simulations

New product launches (NPDs) can be simulated to see redistribution of preference and revenue shares.

New Product Launch of Ladina Klubnika [ Petrol ]

New Product Launch redistribution of preference shares for Ladina Klubnika

New Product Launch redistribution of revenue projections for Ladina Klubnika

Excel simulator example

Preference share simulators are commonly created and used in Microsoft Excel. We provide an example conjoint simulator file on Google Sheets (which you can copy to edit).

To see the above features of in more detail you can start experimenting with the simulator using “Example experiment 2: Preferences in cars (brand-specific)” in your example experiment library.

Here are also some suggestions for further reading:

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