How to measure category preference share uplift?
You can use the Conjointly preference share simulator to find out the potential uplift to a category of products by simulating the difference in preference share after the introduction of a new product against a base case scenario, which is the total preference share of the category without the NPD.
You can then find out the uplift by simulating two scenarios:
Baseline- includes all current SKUs from both categories only
New preference share including NPD- Include current SKUs and NPD.
Sample case study
In the sample case study below, we simulated a study which is launching an SKU in paper towels that is likely to divert consumers from using softer tissues, we included:
- 10 current paper towel SKUs
- 10 current SKUs from softer tissue SKUs
- 3 paper towel NPDs
- None of the above includes respondents who selected “Others”
As we can see from the simulation, launching the Paper Towel NPD would increase the preference share of the Paper Towel category from 45% to 53%, the NPDs gained share from softer tissue products SKU and None of the above, in other words, launching the NPD means category growth in terms of volume for paper towels, but it is cannibalising other tissue products in this case.
Revenue for the Paper Towel category also increased from 1,447K to 1,704K, most of which are cannibalised from the Soft Tissue category.
Source of Business
You can also determine the potential cannibalization to a product or category of product by using the Source of Business function. In this example, we can see that the NPD mainly cannibalised share from other paper towel SKUs and softer tissue SKUs, some shares are also gained from respondents who selected None of the above in the baseline case.