Simulating the difference in preference share
How to measure category preference share uplift?
Published on 17 May 2023.

Conjointly preference share simulator allows you to simulate shares of preferences for different scenarios. Here is how you can use it to discover the potential uplift of the NPD.

You can use the Conjointly preference share simulator to find out the potential uplift to a category of products by simulating the difference in preference share after the introduction of a new product against a base case scenario, which is the total preference share of the category without the NPD.

You can then find out the uplift by simulating two scenarios:

  • Baseline - includes all current SKUs from both categories only.
  • New preference share, including NPD - Include current SKUs and NPD.

Sample case study

In the sample case study below, we simulated a study that is launching an SKU in paper towels that is likely to divert consumers from using softer tissues, we included:

  • 10 current paper towel SKUs.
  • 10 current SKUs from softer tissue SKUs.
  • 3 paper towel NPDs.
  • None of the above includes respondents who selected “Others”.

Preference share

As we can see from the simulation, launching the Paper Towel NPD would increase the preference share of the Paper Towel category from 45% to 53%, the NPDs gained share from softer tissue products SKU and None of the above. In other words, launching the NPD means category growth in terms of volume for paper towels, but it is cannibalising other tissue products in this case.

Preference share simulation for category preference share uplift

Revenue Index

Revenue for the Paper Towel category also increased from 1,447K to 1,704K, most of which is cannibalised from the Soft Tissue category.

Revenue index simulation for category preference share uplift

Source of Business

You can also determine the potential cannibalisation of a product or category of product by using the Source of Business function. In this example, we can see that the NPD mainly cannibalised shares from other paper towel SKUs and softer tissue SKUs, some shares are also gained from respondents who selected None of the above in the baseline case.

Source of business simulation for category preference share uplift

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