We conducted a poll of 381 panellists (some in Central Russia, others in Siberia and the Far East) to compare perception of safety. Results suggest that those further away from the conflict feel safer.
Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Russian interior (especially drone attacks near Moscow) have been making headlines. Do they affect how Russians feel about their own safety? We conducted a poll of 381 panellists to compare perception of safety between Central Russia (i.e. Moscow and the surrounding regions) and regions that are further away from the conflict (Siberia and the Far East).
We asked the following questions:
Q1. Do you feel safe? (Open-ended)Чувствуете ли вы себя в безопасности?
Q2. Do you feel anxiety about your family or loved ones? (Open-ended)Ощущаете ли вы тревогу за свою семью или близких Вам людей?
Q3. On a scale of 1 to 5, how safe do you feel? (Likert scale, scales randomly flipped by respondent)По шкале от 1 до 5, насколько безопасно вы себя ощущаете?
- Совершенно безопасно
- Совершенно не безопасно
Q4. Which city do you live in? (Select or write-in)В каком городе Вы проживаете? (Введите или выберите Ваш город)
Sample
We used Self-serve sample B for data collection on 12 and 13 September 2024 at the total price of USD 243.84. We targeted people who live in Central Russia, Siberia or the Far East. We did not target other regions, such as the Caucasus.
Despite the targeting, we received some responses from other regions. Those were not excluded from the analysis. Instead, using reported IP or browser location, we split the sample into those two live to the East of the Ural Mountains (Siberia and the Far East, N = 167) and those who live to the West (“Central Russia”, N = 214):
Answers to Q4 (Which city do you live in?) were not used in the analysis, but they corroborate the split by longitude.
Response coding
Most responses to open-ended questions were very short, lending themselves to easy coding.
We coded the responses to Q1 (Do you feel safe?) as follows:
- “Safe”: Да, Чувствую, Скорее да, Вполне
- “Relatively”: Относительно
- “Neither”: Ни да, ни нет
- “Undecided / Maybe”: Не уверена, Не знаю
- “Sometimes”: Не всегда, Иногда
- “Not fully”: Не очень, Не совсем, Частично
- “Unsafe”: Нет, В настоящее время нет
We coded the responses to Q2 (Do you feel anxiety about your family or loved ones?) as follows:
- “No”: Нет, Не ощущаю
- “Maybe”: Вероятно
- “Other”: верю в нашу страну
- “Sometimes”: Иногда, Бывает, Редко, Периодически бывает, Временами
- “To some degree”: Немного, В некоторой степени, Отчасти
- “Yes”: Да, Ощущаю, Постоянно, Есть такое дело
Above, we listed only the most common responses.
Results for Q1: Do you feel safe?
| Coded response | Central Russia | Siberia and Far East | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | 57% | 68% | 61% | ↕️ |
| Relatively | 4% | 4% | 4% | |
| Neither | 0% | 1% | 0% | |
| Undecided / Maybe | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Sometimes | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Not fully | 13% | 6% | 10% | |
| Unsafe | 23% | 17% | 20% | |
| N | 214 | 167 | 381 |
↕️ denotes significant difference at a 95% confidence level.
Results for Q2: Do you feel anxiety about your family or loved ones?
| Coded response | Central Russia | Siberia and Far East | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 33% | 44% | 38% |
| Maybe | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| To some degree | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Sometimes | 13% | 11% | 12% |
| Yes | 46% | 38% | 43% |
| N | 214 | 167 | 381 |
None of the differences in Q2 were statistically significant at a 95% confidence level.
Results for Q3: On a scale of 1 to 5, how safe do you feel?
When grouped into “less safe” (4 or 5) and “safer” (1 or 2), the results were as follows:
| Coded response | Central Russia | Siberia and Far East | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 + 2: Safer | 50% | 62% | 55% | ↕️ |
| 3 | 25% | 18% | 22% | |
| 4 + 5: Less safe | 26% | 20% | 23% | |
| N | 214 | 167 | 381 |
Without grouping, the results were as follows:
| Coded response | Central Russia | Siberia and Far East | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: Safest | 21% | 37% | 28% | ↕️ |
| 2 | 29% | 26% | 27% | |
| 3 | 25% | 18% | 22% | |
| 4 | 13% | 14% | 14% | |
| 5: Least safe | 13% | 5% | 9% | ↕️ |
| N | 214 | 167 | 381 |
↕️ denotes significant difference at a 95% confidence level.
Conclusion
When comparing perception of safety between Central Russia vs. Siberia and the Far East, we found that:
- more people (~12% more people) in the latter regions feel safe. This difference was statistically significant at a 95% confidence level.
- more people (~7% more people) in Central Russia feel unsafe. This difference was statistically significant at a 95% confidence level on the Likert scale.
- The differences in anxiety about family or loved ones were not statistically significant.
Limitations of this fast turn-around study include:
- The sample size was relatively small.
- The sample was not representative of the entire Russian population. We neither enforced quotas for gender, age, etc., nor re-weighted the data.
- It is a geographical comparison, not temporal. We cannot say how these results would have looked in August 2024, for example.
- The results are open to a variety of explanations. For example, people in Central Russia tend to live in larger cities, which are stereotypically stressful.
Overall, it demonstrates that using a fast-turnaround poll with self-serve sample can cheaply provide insights into how people feel in rapidly changing environments.
